Goldman Sachs: Trump holds 'narrow' advantage for 2020

President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE holds a “narrow lead” ahead of the 2020 election, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s economists said the president is bolstered by “the advantage of first-term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance,” in what is sure to be a “close call” election, according to Yahoo.


Even though his approval rating tends to be below 50 percent, Trump is still likely to win a second term, Goldman said.

“President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,” the bank said in its analysis, according to Yahoo.

“While we believe the majority of market participants expect President Trump to win a second term, we note that prediction markets point in the opposite direction and imply that the Democratic candidate has a 56% probability of winning and the Republican candidate has a 44% chance,” the bank said.

The analysts added that the results of the 2018 midterm elections, where Democrats retook the House, indicate Trump is at least in some trouble.

“Groups that most strongly supported President Trump in 2016 made up a smaller share of total voters in 2018 than they did in 2014,” the bank wrote, per Yahoo.

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