Election Countdown: GOP worries House majority endangered by top of ticket | Dems make history in Tuesday's primaries | Parties fight for Puerto Rican vote in Florida | GOP lawmakers plan 'Freedom Tour'

This is Election Countdown, The Hill’s weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We’d love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).

 

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We’re 83 days from the 2018 midterm elections and 811 days from the 2020 elections.

 

In an era of big money and sophisticated campaigns, politics is increasingly becoming a team sport. A strong candidate at the head of a ticket can drive turnout in other contests on the ballot, and a weak candidate can hurt turnout in other races just as much.

Tuesday night was a bad night for a Republican squad hoping to defend its already-tenuous majority in the House, as voters opted for more conservative nominees in two battleground states over stronger and more traditional contenders expected to do well in the general election.

In Minnesota, those conservatives squelched former Gov. Tim Pawlenty‘s comeback bid, choosing Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) as the Republican nominee for governor. And in Kansas, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R) conceded defeat to Kris Kobach, the lightening rod Kansas secretary of State who has President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE’s backing.

Already aware of the treacherous terrain they face this year, Reps. Erik PaulsenErik Philip PaulsenPass USMCA Coalition drops stance on passing USMCA Two swing-district Democrats raise impeachment calls after whistleblower reports Hopes dim for passage of Trump trade deal MORE (R-Minn.) and Jason LewisJason Mark LewisTwo swing-district Democrats raise impeachment calls after whistleblower reports GOP Senate candidate said Republicans have ‘dual loyalties’ to Israel The Hill’s Campaign Report: Democratic field begins to shrink ahead of critical stretch MORE (R-Minn.) had urged Pawlenty to run for his old job, confident that a steady hand would mollify suburban voters who might otherwise want a change. Republicans had also hoped to pick up Democratic-held seats left vacant by Reps. Tim WalzTimothy (Tim) James WalzAuthorities investigating disruptions of police radios, networks during protests: report Christopher Columbus statue toppled outside Minnesota Capitol Manufacturing company leaving Minneapolis because it ‘didn’t protect our people’ MORE, the Democratic nominee for governor, and Rick NolanRichard (Rick) Michael NolanHold off on anti-mining hysteria until the facts are in Minnesota New Members 2019 Republicans pick up seat in Minnesota’s ‘Iron range’ MORE.

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“They’re both in more trouble with a weak gubernatorial nominee,” one Minnesota Republican strategist said of Paulsen and Lewis. “And we can forget about picking up” the Walz or Nolan seats.

In Kansas, top aides to Rep. Kevin YoderKevin Wayne YoderSharice Davids to vote for Trump impeachment articles: ‘The facts are uncontested’ Feehery: How Republicans can win back the suburbs K Street giants scoop up coveted ex-lawmakers MORE (R) voiced private concerns that having Kobach at the top of the ticket would energize Democrats and independents who can’t stand the firebrand conservative. Republicans are also concerned that a seat being vacated by Rep. Lynn JenkinsLynn Haag JenkinsBottom line Former GOP Rep. Costello launches lobbying shop Kansas Republican dropping Senate bid to challenge GOP rep MORE (R) may be vulnerable.

“This race will be nationalized,” said one Kansas Republican familiar with the internal discussions. “Kobach is hated by independents. He energizes the [Democrats] to get out the vote.”

How does a subpar top-of-the-ticket play out in down-ballot races? Look no farther than Virginia, where Sen. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Senate panel passes amendment to bar using troops against protesters Defense bill turns into proxy battle over Floyd protests MORE (D) has spent this week campaigning with Abigail Spanberger, Elaine Luria and Jennifer Wexton, three Democratic candidates running for GOP-held House seats. Kaine has done more than 30 events with House candidates since the June primary, his campaign told The Hill.

By contrast, the Republican nominee facing Kaine, Prince William County Council chairman Corey Stewart, has based his pitch to voters on a pledge to defend Confederate statues — even though he is a Minnesota native. Not exactly the pitch that suburban voters in an increasingly blue state want to hear.

A Virginia Commonwealth University poll released last week shows Kaine overwhelmingly leading Stewart. So don’t expect to see Stewart campaigning alongside Rep. Barbara ComstockBarbara Jean ComstockLive coverage: House holds third day of public impeachment hearings Gun debate raises stakes in battle for Virginia legislature Progressives face steep odds in ousting incumbent Democrats MORE (R-Va.) any time soon.

The Hill’s Reid Wilson has more here on Republican worries that weak top-of-the-ticket candidates could cost them the House.

 

Primary recap

Two big things from Tuesday’s primaries: Democrats chose history-making nominees in three states and establishment candidates flexed their muscles in the Midwest.

Democratic voters in Vermont chose Christine Hallquist as their gubernatorial nominee, making her the first openly transgender woman to be nominated for a governorship by a major political party.

In Connecticut’s 5th District, voters handed former National Teacher of the Year Jahana Hayes the Democratic nomination to replace Rep. Elizabeth EstyElizabeth Henderson EstyConnecticut elects first black congresswoman Former aides alleging sexual harassment on Capitol Hill urge congressional action Rising Dem star in Connecticut says people like me ‘deserve a seat at the table’ in Congress MORE (D). If Hayes wins in November, she’ll become the first black Democrat from Connecticut to serve in the House.

And in Minnesota’s 5th District, Ilhan Omar took the Democratic nomination to succeed Rep. Keith EllisonKeith Maurice EllisonThe Hill’s Coronavirus Report: Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas says country needs to rethink what ‘policing’ means; US cases surpass 2 million with no end to pandemic in sight Officer charged in Floyd’s death considered guilty plea before talks fell apart: report Minnesota AG Keith Ellison says racism is a bigger problem than police behavior; 21 states see uptick in cases amid efforts to reopen MORE (D), likely setting her up to become one of the first Muslim women elected to Congress.

Tuesday was also a (largely) good night for establishment candidates, particularly in the two Midwestern primaries.

Leah Vukmir, who carried the endorsement of the Wisconsin GOP, overcame a challenge from Kevin Nicholson in the state’s GOP Senate primary, handing a defeat to a candidate who billed himself as a political outsider.

And incumbent Sen. Tina SmithTina Flint SmithGun control group rolls out first round of Senate endorsements Pelosi: George Floyd death is ‘a crime’ Senate Democrat introduces bill to protect food supply MORE (D-Minn.), a longtime player in Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, easily advanced to the state’s special Senate election in November, beating out Richard Painter, a former ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush, in her primary.

 

Read our takeaways from Tuesday night.

 

Race for the White House

Michael Avenatti, the lawyer representing Stormy Daniels in her lawsuit against Trump, released his policy positions on Twitter as he weighs a 2020 bid. Among his positions, Avenatti supports “Medicare for All,” which is gaining steam on the left flank of the party.

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And while we’re on the subject of Avenatti, The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Mike Lillis take a look at how Democrats are embracing Avenatti’s call to be more aggressive in the Trump era–making a notable switch from former first lady Michelle ObamaMichelle LeVaughn Robinson ObamaThe Hill’s Morning Report – Treasury, Fed urge more spending, lending to ease COVID-19 wreckage Budowsky: Michelle Obama or Tammy Duckworth for VP Michelle Obama urges class of 2020 to couple protesting with mobilizing, voting MORE‘s call to “go high.”

 

Senate showdown

Democrats and Republicans are vying for votes among Florida’s burgeoning Puerto Rican population – a voting bloc that is expected to play a critical role in 2020 and beyond.

On the Republican side, party officials and outside groups are holding civics classes and resume-writing workshops to court Puerto Rican voters, The Hill’s Rafael Bernal and Max Greenwood report. Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to field more diverse candidates as they seek to hold onto Puerto Ricans as reliable Democratic voters.

 

Meanwhile, progressives are livid that Senate Democrats aren’t doing enough to oppose Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, reports The Hill’s Jordain Carney. Their frustrations come as vulnerable Senate Democrats o meet with Kavanaugh. They include Democratic Sens. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE (N.D.), Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyEx-Sen. Joe Donnelly endorses Biden Lobbying world 70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents MORE (Ind.), Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMissouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties Senate faces protracted floor fight over judges amid pandemic safety concerns Amash on eyeing presidential bid: ‘Millions of Americans’ want someone other than Trump, Biden MORE (Mo.). He’s already met with Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinTrump administration seeks to use global aid for nuclear projects Shelley Moore Capito wins Senate primary West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice wins GOP gubernatorial primary MORE (D-W.Va.).

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Survey says…

Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonNASA, SpaceX and the private-public partnership that caused the flight of the Crew Dragon Lobbying world The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (D) holds a slight lead over Gov. Rick Scott (R) in Florida’s Senate race, a poll commissioned by the nonpartisan Hispanic Federation and several progressive Latino groups finds. The poll finds Nelson up, 44 to 41 percent, among Latinos statewide. Scott leads among Cuban-Americans, who lean conservative, while Nelson is ahead among Puerto Ricans.

 

A new Monmouth University poll is showing the race for a competitive New Jersey House seat is a dead heat. Rep. Tom MacArthurThomas (Tom) Charles MacArthurRepublicans plot comeback in New Jersey Republicans spend more than million at Trump properties The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority MORE (R-N.J.) leads his Democratic challenger Andy Kim, a former national security aide in the Obama administration, 41 to 40 percent, an edge within the survey’s margin of error. Trump won MacArthur’s district in 2016, but Obama carried in both 2008 and 2012.

 

New polling is out from Navigator Research and here are some of the highlights: Democrats are leading the generic ballot by 8 points, 45 to 37 percent. The group found that opposition to the family separation policy has grown even as the administration has stopped the policy. Now 69 percent oppose it. And on the Supreme Court, 15 percent say they have a favorable view of Trump’s nominee Brett Kavanaugh, while 28 percent view him unfavorably.

 

Paper chase

Democratic mega-donor Tom Steyer announced Tuesday that he will spend $10 million on a get out the vote effort that he’s calling “Need to Vote.” The name is a play on his other initiative “Need to Impeach,” which seeks to rally support for booting Trump from office. The Get-out-the-vote campaign will take out TV and digital ad spots, mail out handwritten letters encouraging supporters to vote and dispatch political operatives across the country.

 

Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D-Texas) is going up on the airwaves–and using the money he raised after Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R-Texas) ran a negative ad against him. O’Rourke, who has an uphill fight in his Senate bid in ruby-red Texas, is spending $1.27 million on a “positive” ad campaign.

 

What we’re watching for

Here’s a list of the final primaries in August: Alaska and Wyoming hold primaries on Aug. 21 and Arizona and Florida have primaries on Aug. 28.

 

Rep. Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantisGOP tentatively decides on Jacksonville for site of convention DeSantis pushing to host Republican National Convention in Florida Florida bars and theaters to reopen starting Friday, DeSantis says MORE (R-Fla.) is set to campaign alongside Rep. Jim JordanJames (Jim) Daniel JordanHouse Republicans hopeful about bipartisan path forward on police reform legislation Tim Scott to introduce GOP police reform bill next week Floyd’s brother urges Congress to take action MORE (R-Ohio) on Aug. 18 in a trio of events the lawmakers are dubbing the “Freedom Tour.” Jordan is mounting a bid for House Speaker and DeSantis is Trump’s choice for Florida governor. They’ll be joined by another avid Trump supporter, Rep. Matt GaetzMatthew (Matt) GaetzFloyd’s brother urges Congress to take action Philonise Floyd asks Congress to deliver justice for his brother Overnight Defense: Senate confirms US military’s first African American service chief | Navy to ban display of Confederate flags | GOP lawmakers urge Trump not to cut troops in Germany MORE (R-Fla.).

 

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo will debate progressive challenger, former “Sex and the City” star Cynthia Nixon, on Aug. 29 in the state’s Democratic gubernatorial primary.

 

Coming to a TV near you

Less than 24 hours since the Wisconsin primary, Democrats and Republicans leapt out of the gate with new ads in the Senate and governor’s races.

 

In the Senate primary, Democratic super PAC American Bridge is running an ad targeting newly minted GOP nominee Leah Vukmir. And Gov. Scott Walker (R) is also out with a new TV ad touting his agenda. Meanwhile, the Wisconsin Republican Party launched an ad targeting Walker’s Democratic opponent, state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers.

 

Meanwhile, the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) launched a flurry of new ads this week tarring Democratic candidates in competitive House races. The ads take Democrats to task over local issues as well as continuing to tie them to House Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Pelosi: Georgia primary ‘disgrace’ could preview an election debacle in November MORE (D-Calif.). CLF is running ads in competitive GOP-held seats in California, New Jersey, Illinois, Wisconsin, New York and Maine.

 

Mike Braun, the Republican challenging Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) in Indiana, is out with a new digital ad campaign seeking to put pressure on Donnelly to support Kavanaugh‘s nomination. One ad questions whether Donnelly will get “permission” from Democratic leaders to confirm him, while another demands that Chuck SchumerChuck SchumerOvernight Health Care: US showing signs of retreat in battle against COVID-19 | Regeneron begins clinical trials of potential coronavirus antibody treatment | CMS warns nursing homes against seizing residents’ stimulus checks Schumer requests briefing with White House coronavirus task force as cases rise Schumer on Trump’s tweet about 75-year-old protester: He ‘should go back to hiding in the bunker’ MORE “allow Joe to confirm Judge Kavanaugh today.”

 

 

Wave watch

About a week after Washington state’s primary, we finally know who Republican Dino Rossi will face in November. Democrat Kim Schrier, a physician won the second spot on the general election ballot in Washington’s top-two primary. Rossi and Schrier will compete in the race to replace Rep. Dave ReichertDavid (Dave) George ReichertMail ballot surge places Postal Service under spotlight Bottom Line The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (R-Wash.), whose seat Clinton carried by more than 3 points.

 

Pelosi is going back to a familiar strategy from 2006–painting Republicans as corrupt in the wake of Rep. Chris CollinsChristopher (Chris) Carl CollinsWe can’t afford to let local news die House bill would ban stock trading by members of Congress Former Rep. Chris Collins sentenced to 2 years in prison for insider trading MORE’s (R-N.Y.) arrest on insider trading charges. Democrats are looking to hit home that strategy in the run-up to the midterms, linking the party to Collins and the scandals that have swept up White House officials. It’s unclear how effective those attacks will be, but Democrats–and Pelosi–believe it can be a powerful campaign message like in 2006.

 

And speaking of Collins, Democrats are threatening to sue to keep the New York congressman on the November ballot, which they believe will help them flip a deep-red Buffalo seat. Meanwhile, a dozen local Republicans are expressing interest in Collins’s seat.

 

Also today… A new poll also shows Democrats up 11 points over Republicans on a generic House ballot. The Cook Political Report is moving four GOP races to the toss up category. And President Trump praised the results of Tuesday night’s primaries, claiming that Republicans have “the team we want” heading into the midterms.

 

The Hill’s Election Countdown was written by Reid Wilson, Lisa Hagen, Max Greenwood, Jasper Goodman and Caroline Gardner.

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