The Cook Political Report has shifted several House races toward the Democratic Party ahead of November’s midterm elections, the nonpartisan elections analyst said Friday.
A number of House Democrats had their seats shifted to the left by Cook, while the report says a number of Republicans could now face higher chances of defeat in November.
In total, 13 races were shifted by Cook to the left in the latest rankings, including those involving Reps. Tom MacArthurThomas (Tom) Charles MacArthurRepublicans plot comeback in New Jersey Republicans spend more than million at Trump properties The 31 Trump districts that will determine the next House majority MORE (R-N.J.), David ValadaoDavid Goncalves ValadaoDemocratic Rep. Cox advances in California primary The 14 other key races to watch on Super Tuesday The biggest political upsets of the decade MORE (R-Calif.) and Robert PittengerRobert Miller PittengerBottom Line North Carolina reporter says there could be ‘new crop’ of GOP candidates in 9th Congressional District race North Carolina board calls for new election in contested House race MORE (R-N.C.), who all saw their districts move from “likely” Republican to the more vulnerable category of “lean” Republican.
Cook also shifted some races involving Democratic incumbents, including Reps. Josh GottheimerJoshua (Josh) GottheimerGun control group rolls out House endorsements A quiet, overlooked revolution in congressional power Bipartisan Senate group offers new help to state, local governments MORE (D-N.J.) and Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), from “likely” Democratic to the “solidly” Democratic category.
One big issue the analysis says Republicans will face is Pennsylvania’s congressional district map, which was recently redrawn by the state’s Supreme Court despite protests from state GOP leaders. The new lines caused Cook to shift a number of districts further to the left.
“Republicans desperately need to catch some breaks to offset the new Pennsylvania map,” Cook Political Report House editor Dave Wasserman wrote.
“In this difficult environment, the [National Republican Congressional Committee] and the Congressional Leadership Fund have no choice but to run against Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiTrump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Pelosi: Georgia primary ‘disgrace’ could preview an election debacle in November MORE and seek to individually disqualify Democratic nominees with negative ads over the summer and early fall — before those nominees can introduce themselves — in order to hold onto their majority,” he added.
Democrats currently have an 8-point advantage over Republicans on a generic House ballot, the Cook report notes, and a recent Morning Consult poll showed President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE with a 41 percent approval rating with 54 percent of those surveyed disapproving of his job as president.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats in the midterms to retake the majority in the House.
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